DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/20 07:16

   Cotton Timidly Above 80 Cents

   Overnight, the cotton market continued to trade above the 80-cent line, 
although narrowly. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Overnight, the cotton market continued to trade above the 80-cent line, 
although narrowly. Last Friday the market posted new contract highs with an 
80-cent settlement, which was its first time over that herald pricing level. 
Traders will have renewed focus on the U.S./Iran War as that situation seems to 
be unraveling.

   Last Friday the CFTC updated its weekly Commitments of Traders information. 
For the first time in nearly two years, the managed-money funds have flipped to 
the bull side. Numerically they bought, per last Tuesday's close, some 18,800 
positions, changing their long-time net-short carry to one of 16,825 contracts 
net long.

   First notice day for the May contract is April 24. Its delivery period runs 
through May 6.

   Monday at 4 p.m., USDA will issue its weekly crop progress report. At last 
count the 2026 crop was some 7% planted versus its five-year average of 7% 
complete. The data will be out at 4 p.m. EDT.

   Crude oil is sharply higher this morning as the U.S. and Iran teeter on a 
renewed war. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian container ship in the 
Gulf of Oman, with U.S. Marines seizing the vessel. This was in response to 
Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats firing on tankers and container ships in 
international waters.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 78.30 cents and 77.20 cents, with 
resistance around 80.20 cents and 81.00 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 17,451 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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