DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/17 07:37

   Cotton Steadies Its Bullish Composure 

   After rallying some 250 points just this week, the cotton market is 
attempting to maintain that gain into the weekend. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After rallying some 250 points just this week, the cotton market is 
attempting to maintain that gain into the weekend. Although the public reason 
for this is adverse weather, the main buyers have been net-short traders. Thus, 
Friday's CFTC update will be key to further advance.

   As mentioned, Friday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT the CFTC will update its 
weekly Commitments of Traders information. For nearly two years, and certainly 
through last week, the managed-money funds have been bearish to the cotton 
market, posting, at one time, a record net-short carry. However, at last count 
they were pegged slightly net-short by a mere 2,020 contracts.

   First notice day for the May contract is April 24. Its delivery period runs 
through May 6.

   Crude oil is slipping after President Trump said the war in Iran "should be 
ending pretty soon." Trump on Thursday said "the war in Iran is going along 
swimmingly," reiterating rosy predictions about the end of the war that began 
on Feb. 28.

   The U.S./China trade meeting is still on for mid-May. As of April 2026, the 
U.S. and China are navigating a tense trade environment with high tariffs, in 
some cases up to 145%, on Chinese goods. Following a truce in May 2025 and a 
meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, both sides have been trying to 
stabilize economic ties.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 76.45 cents and 76.00 cents, with 
resistance around 79.00 cents and 79.50 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 21,225 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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