DTN Closing Cotton            12/17 13:42

   Cotton Tries a Tourniquet

   The cotton market attempted to stop its bearish hemorrhaging today with a 
slightly higher close, but trader sentiment remains negative.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market attempted to stop its bearish hemorrhaging today with a 
slightly higher close, but trader sentiment remains negative. Tuesday, the 
market posted new life-of-contract lows and settlements. Historically, it's not 
uncommon for cotton prices to sink during the month of December, but typically 
the seasonal low tends to come earlier.

   USDA will issue another catch-up export sales report Thursday, covering the 
time period of Nov. 27. The most recent release, last Monday, showed 2025/2026 
net sales were 148,000 bales, with Vietnam as the top buyer at 46,700 bales. 
For the 2026/2027 season, sales were 3,100 bales, and shipments were 120,800 
bales.

   Mortgage application volume fell 3.8% last week versus the previous week. 
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is 6.38% 
from 6.33% amount. Moreover, points on loans increased to 0.62 from 0.60, 
including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Cotton and 
textiles are a main component in the U.S. housing industry.

   New inflation numbers will be out in Thursday's CPI report. Traders will 
parse its numbers for clues as to what could be the Federal Reserve's next move 
on interest rates. Expectations call for November month-over-month to be 0.2%, 
while November year-over-year to be at 3.0%.

   For Wednesday, March 2026 went out at 63.43 cents, plus 33 points; July was 
65.58 cents, up 20 points; and December 2026 closed at 67.19 cents, 16 points 
higher. Wednesday's estimated volume was 35,592 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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